NFL Power Rankings: Bills, Bears and 49ers among risers heading into Division Round of playoffs - NFL.com
Lead Draft Writer Back in the four-game-format days, the 2019 Wild Card Round was pretty darned strong. More recently, four out of the six wild-card contests in 2022 were one-score games. But I can't remember -- not recently, anyway -- as good a first round as what we just saw. Let's start with this: Teams leading at the two-minute warning started this postseason 0-3. Two thrillers on Saturday, two more on Sunday, and the final two games were one-score games in the fourth quarter. Even if it lost a little steam late, c'mon: It was a great Wild Card Weekend. Typically, the Divisional Round is where the real meat and potatoes are served, and we welcome the top-seeded Seahawks and Broncos to the table. May we receive another bountiful banquet, please. It's interesting to think of this round in QB terms, with MVP candidates Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford -- and, of course, reigning MVP Josh Allen -- in the top tier. Caleb Williams and Maye were intermittently brilliant but also sloppy in their respective playoff debuts. What's in store for those two second-year pros -- as well as Bo Nix -- in postseason start No. 2? And where do we slot Sam Darnold, C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy? Top-tier performances are possible for all of these quarterbacks, but it wouldn't be shocking to see some of them flame out, the way Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers did in the opening round. Maybe it's the quality of the defenses that deserve the credit for that. And two of the best Ds are entering the ring this week. NOTE: Up/down arrows below reflect movement from the Wild Card Round Power Rankings. Seattle will get a third crack at San Francisco after splitting the first two matchups. Week 1, when we had no clue what this team could become, the Seahawks lost at home. Week 18, when they'd established themselves as arguably the NFL's most complete team, they shut down the 49ers in their own building. This one is in Seattle, and the 'Hawks know they're expected to win, preparing again for the team they just beat. Mike Macdonald's defenses have done a number on Kyle Shanahan's offenses in recent history, including a few weeks ago, impressively bottling up Christian McCaffrey. And now George Kittle (Achilles) is out. If the Seahawks' run game can hum the way it did in the Week 18 bout, the 49ers will be in trouble. San Francisco's best hope is that Sam Darnold turns turnover-happy, but Seattle has the balance needed to not force the issue. It wasn't the prettiest of performances, but the Patriots won their first playoff game in nearly seven years thanks to a dominant defensive performance, excellent special teams and a balanced offensive attack, even though they left some points out on the field against the Chargers. But about that defense ... Yes, the Bolts helped New England with some curious play-calling and their own personnel issues. Still, this was really fine execution by the Patriots' D, which has flown under the radar this season. Seriously, can anyone outside of the six New England states tell you who is coordinating this unit? (Answer: Interim coordinator Zak Kuhr, who has done a terrific job since taking the reins when DC Terrell Williams was diagnosed with cancer in September.) Drake Maye had some special moments in his playoff debut, but he'll have to be sharper this coming Sunday in Foxborough. Going against a very tough Texans defense, the degree of difficulty is raised. The Broncos watched over their bye and saw the AFC's No. 3 seed removed from the tournament with Jacksonville's loss. Meanwhile, the conference's No. 2 seed, New England, struggled to score 16 points in its playoff opener. So, for all the handwringing there has been about whether the Broncos truly are top-seed worthy -- and yes, I've been among the mild doubters -- the big picture looks pretty good. However, what matters is the here and now, and that means the Broncos facing Josh Allen, who just completed a hop-on-my-shoulders performance in Jacksonville and who could give a very good Denver defense problems. The Broncos' pass rush could be a problem for the Bills, but Allen's out-of-structure playmaking should give Denver some issues, too. Buffalo also defends the pass well, so the Broncos must find ways to penetrate what has been a leaky run defense. If they can do that and keep Allen under wraps, they can host the AFC Championship Game. Josh Allen took a beating and kept coming back for more. One of the toughest quarterbacks of this -- or any -- generation, Allen clearly was not what any reasonable person would call "healthy," and the Jaguars came ready to hit. Yet he threw an absolute beauty of a game and ran 11 times (scoring two TDs) in a legacy-building effort. This was probably the most complete game the Bills have played since the Week 15 win over the Patriots, and maybe even farther back than that. Even with the run-stopping issues, they forced two Jaguars interceptions and earned a red-zone turnover on downs. Greg Rousseau was heating up the pass rush, and Tre'Davious White had a “turn-back-the-clock performance,” to steal Kevin Patra's apt line. Anything is again possible with these chaotic-but-undead Bills. If Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers could win their first rings with far from their best teams in their respective eras, why can't Allen get his with this squad in this playoff field? DeMeco Ryans, who once sacked Aaron Rodgers himself, watched his defense sack Rodgers four times and run back the quarterback's two turnovers for touchdowns in Monday's dominant defensive showing. We've come to expect nothing less from this group, and if this was the last we saw of Rodgers, the Texans certainly humbled the 42-year-old in his finale. Despite the 30-6 final score, though, it wasn't all roses for Houston. Before the Texans' fourth-quarter frenzy, C.J. Stroud was having a borderline-nightmarish night, seemingly unable to put the Steelers away with three head-scratching turnovers. The exchanges from center were funky, and Stroud looked skittish before settling in and letting the defense take it home. The big worry prior to this Sunday's game at New England might be the health of WR Nico Collins (concussion), but Christian Kirk and Woody Marks both came up big in Pittsburgh. There's no shame in winning a road thriller after semi-limping into the playoffs, but the Rams know they have plenty to clean up before this week's visit to Chicago. Penalties weren't a problem all season long, but they almost cost Los Angeles the game in Charlotte. The special-teams ugliness again reared its head in the form of a late blocked punt. The defense must be better. Matthew Stafford even had some rough patches in this one. But Stafford also calmly got L.A. back on top with a monster fourth quarter (12-of-15 passing, 143 yards, two TDs), and everyone breathed a sigh of relief. This still doesn't yet resemble the Super Bowl favorite we saw well into December, but for now, the Rams are back. If Quentin Lake and Davante Adams can knock off some of the rust, the previous level of potency could return, but it's clear there's work to be done. I was prepared to fully rip the Bears for their first-half performance, and they still had a ton of work to do late in the second half, even as the effort improved. Silly me. Had I not watched a Bears game this season? The Windy City juju was in full effect, quite noticeably on Caleb Williams' improbable fourth-and-8 completion under heavy duress to keep the comeback hopes alive. Did the Packers -- just like last time -- keep Chicago in this one with a flurry of errors? Absolutely. But did the Bears make the plays they needed to make? No doubt. Had they come up short, you could have put a bow on an unexpectedly good season and proclaimed the team was ahead of schedule, and you wouldn't have been wrong. But this feels more complete and definitive, with the Bears beating their archrivals in another thriller and keeping the party going. How long it'll last, no one knows. But it's been a hell of a ride for Ben Johnson, Williams and the rest of the miracle workers. It was a fitting way to beat the Eagles, checking off nearly every box for what's happened with the 49ers this season. Major injury? You bet -- George Kittle, done with a torn Achilles. Brock Purdy was up and down, but ultimately better than Jalen Hurts. Christian McCaffrey was huge, of course, and Kyle Shanahan was in his bag with a beauty of a trick-play TD pass from Jauan Jennings. And another road win? Yep, the 49ers are now 8-2 away from home this season. The final play was made by Eric Kendricks, with the veteran linebacker knocking down a fourth-down pass. He played all 73 defensive snaps on Sunday after seeing the field for just 45 all regular season. Such is life for the shorthanded 49ers, but they carried on as they have for nearly the entire second half of the season, giving everyone in their path their best shot. Now they'll have a chance to avenge Week 18's home loss to the Seahawks, with the venue shifting to Seattle this time around. It won't be easy, but given how the Niners have proven themselves time and time again this season, you absolutely cannot count them out. In the run-up to Jacksonville's showdown with a battered Buffalo team -- a prove-it type of game for the upstart franchise -- America seemed to be awakening to the Jaguars and what they showed over the second half of the season. And Jacksonville had its moments on Sunday afternoon, battling until the end, but ultimately running out of gas after leaving too many points on the field. Trevor Lawrence made some big throws, but his two INTs were killers, as was the quarterback getting stopped short on a fourth-down run in the red zone. The Jags couldn't convert Buffalo's second-quarter kick-return fumble into points, missed a field goal at the end of the half, and simply couldn't stop Josh Allen in a nearly perfect showing from the reigning MVP. It was a bitter end to a thrilling season in Duval. On the plus side, even though this clearly feels like a missed opportunity, it's impossible not to be fired up about the Jags' potential under Liam Coen. There was 2:54 remaining, and Philadelphia had three timeouts, facing a four-point deficit. Touchdown or bust! You know how it ended: The Eagles drove to the edge of the red zone, then took a sack before Jalen Hurts threw three straight incompletions. In a way, that drive was a microcosm of the season, with an A.J. Brown drop mixed in for good measure before the final set of downs. Brown had multiple drops in the game -- and frankly, it's hard for me to imagine him being an Eagle next season. Philly was haunted this season by Brown-outs, with the offense suffering too many dry spells while committing too many penalties. On Sunday, the Eagles were held out of the end zone for the final 36-plus minutes of the game. A missed extra point didn't help, either, but the big picture makes it clear that there need to be offensive changes for this team to get back to Super Bowl-level contention. EDITOR'S UPDATE: The Eagles have informed Kevin Patullo that they're making a change at offensive coordinator, NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo reported on Tuesday. How much longer can Justin Herbert do this? A long, trying season came to an end for Herbert and the Chargers in similar fashion, with the quarterback getting battered by the Patriots and the team going out with a playoff whimper. It was impressive for Jim Harbaugh to get this group to the postseason, considering the blocking situation, but the ending still stings in a far-too-familiar way. Harbaugh couldn't say whether offensive coordinator Greg Roman will be back next season. A slew of injured Chargers offensive linemen will return to health, but there are operational problems that must be fixed independent of that. We also have to be on Jesse Minter watch, with the head-coaching carousel off and spinning. There are encouraging elements with this team to compete next season, but also some frightening realities that can't seem to be fixed. EDITOR'S UPDATE: After publishing on Tuesday, news broke that the Chargers fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman and offensive line coach Mike Devlin. It was a shocking end to the season, watching the Texans turn a 7-6 fourth-quarter game into an absolute laugher. Those in Pittsburgh failed to find the humor. Instead, it was a strangely heavy feeling watching Mike Tomlin and Aaron Rodgers walk off the field, knowing their immediate futures were up in the air. Could that really have been Tomlin's final game in Pittsburgh? And was that Rodgers' last ride? The dust needs to settle, but it seems like it's about to be kicked up again in some way. The Steelers have been stuck in neutral for some time now, and even with Rodgers giving them a boost, it doesn't feel like the sustainable relationship it was earlier this season after a zero-TD playoff flameout. The franchise known for its historic stability suddenly seems a little rocky. EDITOR'S UPDATE: Mike Tomlin is stepping down as Steelers head coach, per NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport, Tom Pelissero and Mike Garafolo. I thought that when the Packers lost to the Seahawks in the 2014 NFC Championship Game, it would be hard to top that all-time collapse. We have a new contender now. The missed field goal at the end of the first half opened the floodgates -- gradually at first, then with fire-hose strength in the final few minutes -- for the Bears to end Green Bay's season in a result that could have far-reaching implications. Matt LaFleur's future already seemed to be in question before kickoff -- and then his team blew an 18-point lead (and an 11-point edge with five minutes remaining) to its archrival. The Packers struggled to handle success and stress this season, coughing up five games they once led by nine-plus points. A few months ago, they were legit Super Bowl contenders. Then everything fell apart. It's tough to grasp right now. Carolina's valiant effort can't be dismissed. Even with a reasonable history of sub-.500 division winners showing up and competing in the Wild Card Round, I can't say I expected the Panthers to have the Rams on their heels multiple times -- especially after Los Angeles zoomed out to the 14-0 lead on Saturday. There are plenty of things for Carolina to hang its hat on, including Bryce Young's inspiring aerial work with Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker. The Panthers are still waiting for former first-round WR Xavier Legette to show his true potential, but they have a nucleus of a desirable offense. Defensively, there are still some areas to patch, but the progress on that side of the ball after a brutal 2024 season was pretty admirable. You have to wonder if anything could have been different, considering Carolina missed on some big offseason swings, but the Panthers figure to be aggressive again this coming spring. They're getting closer.